A panel data analysis of the impact of government trust on support for universal and air travel vaccine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Does trust in the executive branch of the government influence support for collective public health measures? While previous research has primarily examined how trust in the government influences personal health decisions, such as individual vaccination choices, this article explores the role of trust in shaping support for collective public health measures like vaccine mandates. Unlike individual vaccine acceptance, which focuses on the costs and benefits of personal health decisions, supporting vaccine mandates requires individuals to weigh community health benefits against the potential restriction of others' autonomy. Insufficient support for these measures can undermine a government's ability to achieve its public health objectives. Longitudinal panel data from 2020 to 2023 were used to assess how trust in the President and state governor affects support for universal and air travel COVID-19 vaccine mandates in the U.S. Analyses show that higher trust in the President and state governor correlates with greater support for vaccine mandates. The impact of trust in the President on support varies depending on the severity of the health threat, economic conditions, and political ideology, while the influence of trust in the state governor on support remains consistent regardless of these factors. To garner public support for health mandates that limit citizens' autonomy and achieve public health objectives, both federal and state leaders need to foster public trust. Future research should investigate how trust is developed and maintained, particularly during crises.