Carbon footprint reduction potential of consumption changes in five European countries in 2015, 2030, and 2050

Abstract

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires extensive socioeconomic and technological transformations. With approximately two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions linked to household consumption, reducing demand-side emissions through low-carbon lifestyle changes is critical. While major emissions hotspots and high-impact consumption changes are known, a cross-country prospective analysis of their emissions reduction potential has been missing. This study quantifies the avoided greenhouse gas emissions from 47 consumption changes across five diverse European countries. We assess how socioeconomic and technological changes influence emissions reduction potentials by comparing such potentials in a baseline year (2015) with those in 2030 and 2050 under a sustainable development scenario. Our findings highlight that the most effective mitigation options involve reducing conventional vehicle use, decarbonizing household heating, and shifting to predominantly plant-based diets. Though country-specific variation exists, we observed that the emissions reduction potentials of many consumption changes evolve proportionally to technological changes. Behaviors involving direct fossil fuel combustion, such as car travel or fossil-fueled heating, remain largely unabated by technological shifts without lifestyle change, thus increasing in relative mitigation potential. Changes relying on electricity substitution, such as switching to a heat pump, were most dependent on systemic decarbonization. These insights demonstrate which household-level actions consistently offer high emissions mitigation potential and which are more sensitive to broader system changes. Our results provide a clearer understanding of how individual climate change mitigation actions intersect with long-term industrial decarbonization strategies, supporting more targeted policymaking for demand-side climate change mitigation.