Wataru Kodama , Masanori Matsuura-Kannari , Valerien O. Pede
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
With the growing concern on agricultural production over the threat posed by climate change, farmers’ adaptation has been regarded as one of the most important measures to sustain agricultural productivity and food security. To support the farm-level adaptation, comprehensive and context-specific knowledge of adaptation strategies is necessary. Using household data from Central Vietnam (CVN) and Red River Delta (RRD), two key rice production regions in Vietnam, we investigate the effectiveness of popularly adopted farm adaptation strategies: use of stress-tolerant varieties, improved cropping system, and pest and disease management techniques. Employing a two-stage residual inclusion estimation approach, we estimate the impacts of adopting these adaptation strategies on both rice productivity and the downside risk of rice production. Our results suggest that the first two strategies increase rice productivity, while the third strategy reduces downside risk. We also find heterogeneous linkage effects of these strategies among regions (CVN vs. RRD) and seasons (Wet vs. Dry season). Moreover, we further investigate the determinants of the adaptation decisions and find that farmers' perceptions of different climate stresses affect different adaptation strategies. Overall, these results underscore the importance of providing context-specific extension services to support the adoption of effective adaptation strategies.
随着农业生产对气候变化威胁的日益关注,农民适应气候变化已被视为维持农业生产力和粮食安全的最重要措施之一。为了支持农场层面的适应,有必要了解适应战略的综合和具体情况。利用越南中部(CVN)和红河三角洲(RRD)这两个主要水稻产区的家庭数据,我们调查了普遍采用的农业适应策略的有效性:使用耐胁迫品种,改进种植制度,以及病虫害管理技术。采用两阶段残差包含估计方法,我们估计了采用这些适应策略对水稻生产力和水稻生产下行风险的影响。我们的研究结果表明,前两种策略提高了水稻产量,而第三种策略降低了下行风险。我们还发现这些策略在不同地区(CVN vs RRD)和季节(湿季vs旱季)之间存在异质性连锁效应。此外,我们进一步研究了适应决策的决定因素,发现农民对不同气候压力的感知会影响不同的适应策略。总体而言,这些结果强调了提供针对具体情况的推广服务以支持采取有效适应战略的重要性。