Long-term health impacts of the Eritrean-Ethiopian war on young Ethiopian adults

Abstract

The Eritrean–Ethiopian War (1998–2000), triggered by a border dispute in Badme, caused thousands of deaths and widespread disruption. This study investigates whether in utero exposure to the conflict has long-term effects on young adult health outcomes, focusing on height and BMI measured 16 years after the war. We identify these effects based on individuals’ birth cohorts and their proximity to major conflict sites, using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Difference-in-differences estimates reveal a significant and negative impact of in utero conflict exposure on adult height, while effects on BMI are smaller and less consistent. The height effect remains robust to socioeconomic controls, supporting the critical period programming hypothesis. Higher parental socioeconomic status mitigates the adverse effects, suggesting that access to resources offers a protective buffer. We test robustness across alternative conflict measures and functional forms and find little evidence of selective fertility or mortality, though some caution is warranted due to possible selection that remains uncaptured.