Metal mining decarbonisation scenarios – Ontario's path towards net zero GHG emissions

Abstract

Mining is crucial for providing minerals to meet decarbonisation goals to restrict global temperature increases as proposed in the Paris Agreement. To ensure alignment with Paris Agreement objectives, some mining companies have set decarbonisation targets for 30 % greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050. Consequently, mining companies have developed decarbonisation roadmaps. The purpose of this study is to investigate the current and future GHG emission profiles of mines along with the impact of implementing the main technologies included in these decarbonisation roadmaps. A model was developed to assess various strategies for reaching climate change targets. The study was limited to Ontario metal mines, where 14 scenarios with varying technology adoption rates were modeled. The decarbonisation technologies investigated in this study included battery electric vehicles (BEVs), ventilation control strategies (VCS), and general energy management. Results showed that the 30 % GHG emission reduction is achieved between 2032 and 2035 for the more optimistic scenarios, or from 2038 to 2040 for the more conservative cases. GHG emission reductions in 2050 range from 67 to 74 % where displacing diesel equipment with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) was the initiative that produced the largest impact. Results showed that continued adoption of existing technologies and low emission grid electricity could significantly impact the mining sector GHG emission profile, however additional decarbonisation measures and efforts from various stakeholders will be required to reach established targets.