Income elasticity of electricity demand in the context of Portugal’s energy transition

IF 4.4 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.102026

Sérgio Cruz

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The debate on the decoupling between household income and energy demand has intensified in recent years, with a focus on the impact of energy efficiency policies, renewable energy self-consumption, and structural economic changes. However, electrification and the decline of the informal economy may reinforce the relationship. Using a time-varying parameter framework, this paper provides insights into how income affects grid-supplied electricity demand in Portugal, disaggregated by economic sector and utilizing regional data from 1995 to 2022. The results suggest a decreasing but positive income elasticity of aggregate electricity demand in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The results enable the determination of the importance of sensitivity analysis for electricity consumption in the context of the energy transition, which is particularly useful for making informed decisions about electricity generation investments, as well as network planning and development.

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葡萄牙能源转型背景下电力需求的收入弹性

近年来，关于家庭收入与能源需求脱钩的争论愈演愈烈，焦点集中在能源效率政策、可再生能源自我消费和经济结构变化的影响上。然而，电气化和非正规经济的衰落可能会加强这种关系。本文使用时变参数框架，根据经济部门和1995年至2022年的区域数据，提供了收入如何影响葡萄牙电网供电电力需求的见解。结果表明，住宅、商业和工业部门总电力需求的收入弹性在下降，但为正。这些结果能够确定能源转型背景下电力消费敏感性分析的重要性，这对于做出有关发电投资以及网络规划和发展的明智决策特别有用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.