The systemic nature of European uncertainty

IF 1.8 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Daniel Pastorek, Svatopluk Kapounek, Peter Albrecht
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Our paper explores the structural nature of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) in the EU, showing it is shaped by European integration rather than purely country-specific factors. Using a new European Integration Uncertainty Index, we find strong institutional and financial interdependence among member states. Uncertainty connectedness is persistently high (50–60%), with France, Germany, and the UK as key transmitters. We also identify both persistent and episodic transmitters, reflecting structural vulnerabilities and institutional linkages within the EU. These findings highlight the systemic nature of uncertainty propagation across EU countries.
欧洲不确定性的系统性本质
我们的论文探讨了欧盟经济政策不确定性(EPU)的结构本质,表明它是由欧洲一体化而不是纯粹的国家特定因素形成的。使用新的欧洲一体化不确定性指数,我们发现成员国之间的制度和金融相互依赖很强。不确定性连通性一直很高(50-60%),法国、德国和英国是主要的传输国。我们还确定了持续性和偶发性的发射器,反映了欧盟内部的结构性脆弱性和制度联系。这些发现突出了不确定性在欧盟国家传播的系统性。
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来源期刊
Economics Letters
Economics Letters ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
348
审稿时长
30 days
期刊介绍: Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.
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