Daniel Pastorek, Svatopluk Kapounek, Peter Albrecht
{"title":"The systemic nature of European uncertainty","authors":"Daniel Pastorek, Svatopluk Kapounek, Peter Albrecht","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112610","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Our paper explores the structural nature of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) in the EU, showing it is shaped by European integration rather than purely country-specific factors. Using a new European Integration Uncertainty Index, we find strong institutional and financial interdependence among member states. Uncertainty connectedness is persistently high (50–60%), with France, Germany, and the UK as key transmitters. We also identify both persistent and episodic transmitters, reflecting structural vulnerabilities and institutional linkages within the EU. These findings highlight the systemic nature of uncertainty propagation across EU countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112610"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525004471","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Our paper explores the structural nature of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) in the EU, showing it is shaped by European integration rather than purely country-specific factors. Using a new European Integration Uncertainty Index, we find strong institutional and financial interdependence among member states. Uncertainty connectedness is persistently high (50–60%), with France, Germany, and the UK as key transmitters. We also identify both persistent and episodic transmitters, reflecting structural vulnerabilities and institutional linkages within the EU. These findings highlight the systemic nature of uncertainty propagation across EU countries.
期刊介绍:
Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.