Associations between owner proximity and parcel-level flood exposure: Evidence from Douglas County, Nebraska

Abstract

In this study we examine how owner–parcel proximity is associated with parcel-scale flood exposure in Douglas County, Nebraska. We measure exposure and estimate logistic and spatial regression models that distinguish single-family residential (SFR) from multi-family residential (MFR) parcels while adjusting for assessed value, parcel area, structure age, and building presence. For SFR parcels, exposure rises with distance: out-of-state SFR holdings have 3.66 % SFHA exposure versus 0.69 % for owner-occupied SFR parcels and 2019 inundation rates of 3.15 % versus 0.31 %. Treating proximity continuously among non-occupant SFR parcels yields a per-log-kilometer odds ratio of 1.32 for SFHA exposure (95 % CI: 1.31–1.34); collapsing distances ≤10 km to a local category change this to 1.25 (95 % CI: 1.23–1.28), an approximately 5 % attenuation that leaves inference unchanged. Results are robust across distance encodings, and administrative proximity bands show moderate ordinal alignment with kilometer bins. Distance is not a consistent correlate of regulatory exposure for MFR parcels, and no MFR parcels met the 2019 inundation criterion. Descriptively, unimproved non-occupant holdings record the highest event rates, indicating that development status and distance jointly concentrate exposure. Collectively, the findings should motivate proximity aware policy including renter-focused flood-risk disclosures, portfolio-level transparency in rental registries, and targeted buyouts or incentives for distant owners of unimproved SFR parcels.