Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the early stage Chikungunya fever outbreak in Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China in 2025.
Meng Zhang, Yihong Li, Xiqing Huang, Man Liu, Siyang Jiang, Biao Zeng, Luxiang Ouyang, Jianhua Huang, Bing Mai, Qihua Guan, Jiazhi Zeng, Muying Fu, Bingu Zhuo, Yawen Liu, Qin Zeng, Naling Zhu, Tao Wang, Xiaojun Huang, Yimin Pan, Mingji Cheng, Penghui Jia, Xiaofang Peng, Jinhua Duan, Baisheng Li, Jianfeng He, Yanping Zhang, Lei Zhou, Min Kang, Jianpeng Xiao, Zefeng Yang, Yan Li
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: As of July 22, 2025, the chikungunya virus transmission has been documented across 119 countries and territories of the world. In 2025, an outbreak of chikungunya fever (CF) occurred in Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. We aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics during the early stage of this outbreak.
Methods: We collected the data of CF cases in Foshan from July 8 to July 26, 2025. Case data were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. Demographics and tempo-spatial distributions of cases, incidence rates and the onset-to-report interval times were analyzed. Global spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) to assess township-level clustering; Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn's post-hoc comparisons (Bonferroni-corrected) to analyze onset-to-report intervals across four epidemic phases. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated using a maximum likelihood method, which was also compared with the R0 from the CF outbreak in Dongguan City of Guangdong Province in 2010.
Results: A total of 4,754 local cases were reported during the study period. Persons aged 65 years or above had the highest incidence (116.57 per 100,000 population). Most cases were business/service workers, homemakers, and retirees. The median onset-to-report interval decreased from 4 days to 1 day after outbreak control measures were implemented. The outbreak, initially detected in Shunde District, spread rapidly to other districts of Foshan, forming a significant spatial cluster (Moran's I = 0.152, P = 0.029). The estimated R0 was 16.3 (95% confidence interval: 15.0 to 17.5), substantially higher than the estimated R0 of 5.5 for the Dongguan outbreak in 2010.
Conclusions: This outbreak was characterized by high transmissibility, with older persons being a primary high-risk group. The rapid reduction in case reporting delay highlights the effectiveness of response interventions. Sustained, integrated and prompt response has been essential to control the outbreak.
背景：截至2025年7月22日，基孔肯雅病毒传播已在世界119个国家和地区得到记录。2025年，中国广东省佛山市暴发了基孔肯雅热。我们的目的是分析疫情早期的流行病学特征和传播动态。方法：收集佛山市2025年7月8日- 7月26日CF病例资料。病例数据来自国家法定传染病报告系统。分析病例、发病率和发病至报告间隔时间的人口统计学和时空分布。基于全局空间自相关（Moran’s I）的城镇集聚评价Kruskal-Wallis测试了Dunn的事后比较（Bonferroni-corrected），以分析四个流行病阶段的发病到报告间隔。采用最大似然法计算基本再现数（R0），并与2010年广东省东莞市CF暴发的R0进行比较。结果：研究期间共报告局部病例4754例。65岁或以上人士的发病率最高（每10万人中有116.57人）。大多数病例是商业/服务工作者、家庭主妇和退休人员。在实施疫情控制措施后，发病至报告间隔的中位数从4天减少到1天。疫情最初在顺德区发现，随后迅速向佛山其他区扩散，形成明显的空间聚集性（Moran’s I = 0.152, P = 0.029）。估计R0为16.3(95%可信区间：15.0至17.5)，大大高于2010年东莞疫情估计的R0为5.5。结论：本次疫情具有高传播性，老年人为主要高危人群。病例报告延误的迅速减少突出了应对干预措施的有效性。持续、综合和迅速的应对对于控制疫情至关重要。
期刊介绍：
Infectious Diseases of Poverty is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that focuses on addressing essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. The journal covers a wide range of topics including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies and application. It also considers the transdisciplinary or multisectoral effects on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technology. The journal aims to identify and assess research and information gaps that hinder progress towards new interventions for public health problems in the developing world. Additionally, it provides a platform for discussing these issues to advance research and evidence building for improved public health interventions in poor settings.
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