Principles for Minimizing Unintended Consequences

Abstract

A significant challenge to the success of systems engineering solutions is the risk of unintended consequences. This has traditionally been considered to be a real but unactionable requirement. Here, we analyse the notion of unintended consequences and propose an equivalent but actionable requirement, which we relate to the concept of ‘harmony’. The implication of this notion is that in order to assure solution success it has to be architected in concert with considering the structure and dynamics of the system of systems in which it will be deployed. We conducted a study of natural ecosystems as a case study from which we could glean relevant architecting principles. From this we developed a general model of the structure and dynamics of a complex system of systems. From this study and model we distilled a set of general principles for systems architecting. Along the way we introduced a framework for understanding the relationships between the notions elegant, complex, complicated, and simple. We also introduce a new perspective on emergence at the level of parts, supplementing classical notions of emergence at the level of the whole.