The Digital Economy and Rural Household Consumption: A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project

Abstract

E-commerce has become a driver of economic development in China. Drawing on China Household Finance Survey data from 2013 to 2023, this study examined the impact of the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project (NRECDP) on rural household consumption using a staggered difference-in-differences model. The results indicated that the NRECDP increased per capita consumption of rural households by RMB 321. Mechanism analysis revealed two main channels: First, the NRECDP promoted rural household participation in online sales, encouraged changes in planting structures, and raised income from agricultural sales, thereby easing liquidity constraints and stimulating consumption. Second, the project boosted online shopping, particularly in regions with limited market access and small market size, suggesting that it reduced transaction costs and geographic barriers, thereby unlocking latent consumption potential. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the digital economy had a stronger positive effect on households with lower education levels, those without formal loans, and the elderly. Further analysis demonstrated a synergistic effect between digital finance and the project in promoting rural consumption.