Connecting Warming Patterns of the Paleo-Ocean to Our Future

Abstract

The evolution of the spatial pattern of ocean surface warming affects global radiative feedback, yet different climate models provide varying estimates of future patterns. Paleoclimate data, especially from past warm periods, can help constrain future equilibrium warming patterns. By analyzing marine temperature records spanning the past 10 million years with a regression-based technique that removes temporal dimensions, we extract long-term ocean warming patterns and quantify relative sea surface temperature changes across the global ocean. This analysis revealed a distinct pattern of amplified warming that aligns with equilibrated model simulations under high CO₂ conditions, yet differs from the transient warming pattern observed over the past 160 years. This paleodata-model comparison allows us to identify models that better capture fundamental aspects of Earth's warming response, while suggesting how ocean heat uptake and circulation changes modify the development of warming patterns over time. By combining this paleo-ocean warming pattern with equilibrated model simulations, we characterized the likely evolution of global ocean warming as the climate system approaches equilibrium.