Utility of GERAADA Score for Predicting Long-term Survival Following Surgical Repair of Aortic Dissection.

Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to assess the long-term survival following surgical repair because of acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) and the correlation with the preoperative GERAADA (German Registry for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection)-score value.

Methods: We enrolled patients who underwent emergent aortic surgery because of ATAAD from 2010 to 2022 from 9 hospitals. Follow-up information was obtained by matching the clinical patient data with a national administrative database. Discrimination and calibration of GERAADA were tested at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. The relationship between long-term outcome and score was also tested through time-to-event methods.

Results: A total of 1110 patients were analysed: Median age was 67 years [IQR 57-75], and 30.8% of subjects were female. Median GERAADA score was 14.3% [10.2-22]. Mean length of follow-up was 4.19 years. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 5 and 10 years were, respectively, 62.5% ± 1.5%, and 48.5% ± 2.1%. Discrimination was poor but remained stable over the time (area under the curve [AUC] at 1-year follow-up: 0.66; 95% CI 0.63-0.70. AUC at 10-year follow-up: 0.64; 95% CI 0.61-0.68). Calibration plots showed underprediction until 50%-predicted probability and progressive overprediction afterward. There is a steep mortality in the first couple of months after surgery while afterward the mortality rate is constantly lower. GERAADA score was found to be a predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear association.

Conclusions: GERAADA score showed a poor performance in predicting long-term survival.