Excess mortality and disease burden due to conflict in Gaza: focus on the 0-14 age group.

Abstract

Background: The ongoing conflict in Gaza continues to take an unbearable toll, with particularly severe impacts on children. Measuring the burden of conflict-related disease in Gaza in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is important in terms of showing this effect. The aim of this study was to calculate the conflict-related DALY in Gaza among children aged 0-14 years, following the October 7 events and compare these values with global and expected values.

Methods: We estimated the age and gender distribution of individuals killed or injured in Gaza, and calculated the DALYs, including Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with Disability (YLD), attributable to the conflict. These estimates were then compared to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation data for Palestine and global averages. The study also evaluated the DALY/YLD ratio and excess mortality rate.

Results: The DALY per 100,000 population was 160,745.01 (156,986.01-164,503.99) for males, 175,784.51 (170,812.52-180,756.50) for females, and 168,111.39 (164,009.17-172,213.62) overall. The daily DALY burden experienced by Gaza due to conflict indicates an increase of 181.05% compared to Palestinian estimates. The increase was calculated as 115.39% for YLL and 4,268.25% for YLD. Compared to global data for conflict and terrorism, the increases in daily DALY, YLL, and YLD values in Gaza were 1,918.08%, 1,316.32%, and 8,537.50%, respectively. The data calculated in our study indicate that the daily DALY/YLD ratio for the 0-14 age group in Gaza was 333.21 with a p-score of 6,952.0%.

Conclusion: To reduce the devastating effects of violence, such as conflict and terrorism, on children's health, more effective measures should be taken at the international level and preventive strategies should be developed.