Research on carbon peak measurement and potential of China’s logistics industry

IF 3.4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI:10.1007/s13762-025-06543-w

S. Han, Z. Zhou, J. Gui

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Abstract

Since 2005, China has focused on reducing carbon emissions, yet China continue to rise annually. In 2020, China’s emissions reached 10,296.84 MtCO2e, the highest in the world, and China’s logistics industry ranked fifth in carbon emissions among all industries. Effective management of this sector is crucial for both national and global emission control. This study examines the relationship between China’s logistics industry and other sectors, predicting its carbon emission potential using network analysis, Bayesian networks, and Gray Wolf Optimization Support Vector Regression by input–output tables, sub-industry carbon emission data, and industry development data from 2007 to 2020. It found that the transportation equipment manufacturing industry has the strongest link to the logistics industry, with a relationship coefficient of 6.9, which is 0.2 higher than the second place (the logistics industry) and 5.1 higher than the third place (Other Industries). The study predicts the logistics industry’s carbon emissions will peak between 2035 and 2045 under under low and medium economic development scenarios respectively, taking longer time to reach the peak under the high economic development scenario.

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中国物流业碳峰测量与潜力研究

自2005年以来，中国一直致力于减少碳排放，但中国的碳排放量仍在逐年上升。2020年，中国的碳排放量达到1029684万吨二氧化碳当量，居世界首位，中国物流业的碳排放量在所有行业中排名第五。对这一部门的有效管理对于国家和全球的排放控制都至关重要。本研究利用2007 - 2020年的投入产出表、分行业碳排放数据和行业发展数据，运用网络分析、贝叶斯网络和灰狼优化支持向量回归等方法，对中国物流业与其他行业的碳排放潜力进行了预测。研究发现，交通运输设备制造业与物流业的关联度最强，关联度为6.9，比第二名（物流业）高0.2，比第三名（其他行业）高5.1。研究预测，低经济发展情景和中等经济发展情景下，物流业碳排放将分别在2035 - 2045年达到峰值，高经济发展情景下达到峰值需要更长的时间。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

5.60

自引率

6.50%

发文量

806

审稿时长

10.8 months

期刊介绍： International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology (IJEST) is an international scholarly refereed research journal which aims to promote the theory and practice of environmental science and technology, innovation, engineering and management. A broad outline of the journal''s scope includes: peer reviewed original research articles, case and technical reports, reviews and analyses papers, short communications and notes to the editor, in interdisciplinary information on the practice and status of research in environmental science and technology, both natural and man made. The main aspects of research areas include, but are not exclusive to; environmental chemistry and biology, environments pollution control and abatement technology, transport and fate of pollutants in the environment, concentrations and dispersion of wastes in air, water, and soil, point and non-point sources pollution, heavy metals and organic compounds in the environment, atmospheric pollutants and trace gases, solid and hazardous waste management; soil biodegradation and bioremediation of contaminated sites; environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, ecological and human risk assessment; improved energy management and auditing efficiency and environmental standards and criteria.