The societal impact of heatwave intensification and heat stress on African Urban populations

Abstract

Heatwave intensification and associated heat stress represent growing societal challenges in Africa, where rapid urbanization intersects with limited adaptive capacity and pronounced climate vulnerability. This study investigates the societal implications of increasing heatwaves, focusing on urban populations across nine African regions. Leveraging a multi-model ensemble of bias-corrected climate models, we assess heatwaves and the consequent heat stress to evaluate health risks and quantify urban population exposure to heatwaves. We observe regional disparities, with West and Central Africa projected to experience some of the highest levels of heat stress, exposing over 60 % of the urban population to '''strong' or '''extreme' heat stress by the late 21st century. We emphasize the need for region-specific, evidence-based strategies to address these escalating risks and contribute to achieving Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3), Sustainable Cities and Communities (SDG 11), and Climate Action (SDG 13).