Global burden of early-onset atrial fibrillation and flutter: Population based study

Abstract

Background

Atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF/AFL) are traditionally regarded as diseases of ageing, with most research focused on elderly populations. In contrast, early-onset AF/AFL (<65 years) is increasingly recognized as a potential marker of cardiomyopathy, yet its global burden remains poorly understood.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed trends in prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of AF/AFL among individuals aged 30–64 years from 1990 to 2021. Das Gupta decomposition quantified the contributions of population growth, ageing, and age-specific prevalence. Based on spatial co-occurrence with cardiomyopathy and myocarditis (CMP), we classified 204 countries and territories into consistent, AF/AFL-dominant, and CMP-dominant patterns.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, age standardised prevalence, incidence, and DALY rates of early-onset AF/AFL increased significantly (AAPC: 0.14 %, 0.11 %, and 0.07 %, respectively), unlike the stable trends observed in the late-onset or overall AF/AFL population. Population growth contributed 89 % of the increase in early-onset cases, followed by ageing (17 %) and rising age-specific prevalence (7 %). High systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor, contributing 13.04 DALYs per 100,000 population (AAPC: 0.09 %). In 2021, 86 countries showed consistent patterns, 65 were CMP-dominant, and 53 were AF/AFL-dominant.

Conclusions

The global burden of early-onset AF/AFL has risen significantly over three decades, contrasting with stable trends in the late-onset or overall population. Driven mainly by population growth and high systolic blood pressure, and linked with cardiomyopathy, these findings underscore the need for age-specific strategies and targeted research.