Common neural choice signals reflect accumulated evidence, not confidence.

Abstract

Centro-parietal electroencephalogram signals (centro-parietal positivity and error positivity) correlate with the reported level of confidence. According to recent computational work these signals reflect evidence which feeds into the computation of confidence, not directly confidence. To test this prediction, we causally manipulated prior beliefs to selectively affect confidence, while leaving objective task performance unaffected. Behaviorally, we found that manipulating prior beliefs causally affected confidence without corresponding changes in accuracy and a negligible effect on reaction times. The electroencephalogram data showed a monotonic relation between the reported level of confidence and both centro-parietal positivity and error positivity amplitudes. Importantly, this finding is compatible both with the theory that these signals track confidence as well as with the alternative theory that they track accumulated evidence. Critically, both neural signals were insensitive to the influence of prior beliefs on confidence, showing that they reflect the accumulated evidence that is used by the system to compute confidence, not directly confidence. Likewise, oscillatory activity in alpha and beta band was insensitive to the influence of prior beliefs on confidence. Decoding analyses revealed that the brain does hold shared representations for prior beliefs and confidence, and we identified a frontal signal that is sensitive to both confidence and prior beliefs.