High-speed rail's dynamic impacts on urban industrial structure upgrading and its mechanisms

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
Xiaolong Li , Xiaowen Fu , Kun Wang , Zongfa Wu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

High-speed rail (HSR) is a costly transportation infrastructure, and its investment can be better justified when it leads to long-term urban economic development. However, there is a lack of empirical investigations that quantify HSR's dynamic economic benefits, particularly considering the lagging effects, as well as the changing effects resulting from the continuous expansion of the HSR network. This study represents one of the initial attempts to quantify the dynamic impacts of HSR on the upgrading of urban industrial structures. It distinguishes the sources of these impacts by considering the lagging effects for individual cities and the staggered expansion of the HSR network. In addition, the industrial structure upgrading is comprehensively evaluated from the servitization of the industrial structure and the improvement of industrial labor productivity. In which, the industrial structure servitization represents the upgrading of industrial structure towards tertiary industry. Using data from 278 Chinese cities over a span of 19 years, we developed and employed an improved synthetic control method (SCM) and staggered SCM for our empirical investigations. The results indicate that HSR generally facilitates the upgrading of a city's industrial structure. However, the effects of HSR on industrial structure servitization tend to fade quickly, while the impacts on improving industrial labor productivity are more persistent. Further regional heterogeneity analyses suggest the effects of HSR on industrial servitization is more enduring in core cities, while the labor productivity-improving impacts of HSR remain consistent across different cities.
高铁对城市产业结构升级的动态影响及其机制
高速铁路(HSR)是一项昂贵的交通基础设施,当它能促进城市经济的长期发展时,其投资才会更加合理。然而,缺乏量化高铁动态经济效益的实证研究,特别是考虑滞后效应,以及高铁网络持续扩张所带来的变化效应。本研究是量化高铁对城市产业结构升级动态影响的初步尝试之一。它通过考虑单个城市的滞后效应和高铁网络的交错扩张来区分这些影响的来源。另外,从产业结构的服务化和产业劳动生产率的提高两方面对产业结构升级进行综合评价。其中,产业结构服务化代表着产业结构向第三产业的升级。利用中国278个城市19年的数据,我们开发并采用了改进的综合控制方法(SCM)和交错控制方法进行实证研究。结果表明,高铁总体上有利于城市产业结构升级。然而,高铁对产业结构服务化的影响趋于快速消退,而对提高产业劳动生产率的影响更为持久。进一步的区域异质性分析表明,高铁对产业服务化的影响在核心城市更为持久,而高铁对提高劳动生产率的影响在不同城市之间保持一致。
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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