A study on prediction of radioactive fallout based on the WRF-NAQPMS model

IF 2.1 3区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Journal of environmental radioactivity Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2025.107800

Feifei Li , Qiang Liu , Wei Liu , Zhaoru He , Baozhu Ge , Ying Zhang , Nuohang Liu , Yangchao Li , Ming Yang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The WRF-NAQPMS (Weather Research and Forecasting- Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System) model are used to simulate radioactive fallout of nuclear explosions from the stabilized nuclear cloud. The distribution of particle radioactivity and the radioactive distribution are described by modeling the stabilized nuclear cloud. In addition, a three-dimensional radiation calculation module and a radionuclide calculation module are constructed based on the vertical diffusion theory of radioactive materials and the radionuclide fractionation model. The model is evaluated against the simulation results produced by HPAC (Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability) system as well as measured data from three previous nuclear tests (Smoky, Zucchini, and Ess) conducted at the Nevada Test Site. The study demonstrates that the simulated ground exposure rate at 1 h after explosion is close to the measured diffusion trend in both pattern and amplitude. The overall simulation performance of the model is superior to that of HPAC as determined by the MOE (Measure of Effectiveness) and NAD (Normalized Absolute Difference) indices quantitatively. The simulated vertical distribution of exposure rate conforms to the theoretical expectations. The feasibility of the fractionation module is validated by the calculated relative external exposure rate as the function of time and the volatile/refractory ratio in fallout at various arrival time. The significance of this study is providing a new model for simulating and predicting radioactive fallout from nuclear explosions.

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基于WRF-NAQPMS模型的放射性沉降预测研究

使用WRF-NAQPMS（天气研究与预报-嵌套空气质量预测模型系统）模型模拟核爆炸从稳定的核云产生的放射性沉降。通过模拟稳定的核云来描述粒子的放射性分布和放射性分布。此外，基于放射性物质垂直扩散理论和放射性核素分析模型，构建了三维辐射计算模块和放射性核素计算模块。该模型是根据HPAC（危害预测和评估能力）系统产生的模拟结果以及在内华达试验场进行的三次核试验（Smoky， Zucchini和Ess）的测量数据进行评估的。研究表明，爆炸后1 h模拟的地面暴露率在模式和幅度上都与实测的扩散趋势接近。从MOE （Measure of Effectiveness）和NAD （Normalized Absolute Difference）指标定量判断，该模型的整体仿真性能优于HPAC。模拟的暴露率垂直分布符合理论预期。通过计算的相对外部暴露率作为时间的函数和不同到达时间的沉降物挥发/难熔比，验证了分馏模块的可行性。本研究的意义在于为核爆炸放射性沉降物的模拟和预测提供了一个新的模型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of environmental radioactivity 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

13.00%

发文量

209

审稿时长

73 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Environmental Radioactivity provides a coherent international forum for publication of original research or review papers on any aspect of the occurrence of radioactivity in natural systems. Relevant subject areas range from applications of environmental radionuclides as mechanistic or timescale tracers of natural processes to assessments of the radioecological or radiological effects of ambient radioactivity. Papers deal with naturally occurring nuclides or with those created and released by man through nuclear weapons manufacture and testing, energy production, fuel-cycle technology, etc. Reports on radioactivity in the oceans, sediments, rivers, lakes, groundwaters, soils, atmosphere and all divisions of the biosphere are welcomed, but these should not simply be of a monitoring nature unless the data are particularly innovative.