Spatial optimization of cropping patterns of staple crops to enhance supply–demand balance in China

Abstract

The spatial regulation of cropping patterns (CPs) plays a critical role in establishing a sustainable spatial structure of food supply and demand. Based on planting structure data for China's three major staple crops from 2015 to 2020, this research utilizes the PLUS model to perform multiple scenario-based analyses and assess the impacts of different governance strategies on food supply–demand dynamics by 2030. The results indicate that China's CPs are undergoing systematic and spatially uneven transformations, primarily driven by non-agriculturalization (NA) and non-grain conversion (NGC), reflecting mounting challenges to sustainability. Under the natural development scenario (NDS), NA and NGC are expected to persist, while the expansion of single-season grain cropping (SSGC) may emerge as a new threat to national food security. Among the three single-policy scenarios (NGC control scenario, NA control scenario, and SSGC control scenario), only NGC control significantly increases grain output, whereas NA and SSGC interventions yield limited regional improvements but fall short of achieving structural balance at the national level. In contrast, the integrated control scenario effectively coordinates multiple strategies to simultaneously enhance grain production, optimize cropping structure, and strengthen regional self-sufficiency. Furthermore, based on CP evolution patterns, this study classifies counties nationwide into four governance zones and proposes tailored strategies for each, improving spatial policy responsiveness and effectiveness. In summary, this study confirms the effectiveness of CP spatial regulation in optimizing the food supply–demand configuration and provides both theoretical foundations and empirical support for cultivated land use control and food security governance in China.