Projected Distributions of Two Key Vectors of Lumpy Skin Disease, Aedes aegypti and Stomoxys calcitrans, Under Climate Change

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD), a severe transboundary disease of cattle, has caused substantial economic losses worldwide. Its transmission involves multiple vector species, among which Aedes aegypti and Stomoxys calcitrans are recognized as important contributors due to their broad distribution and ecological adaptability. Modeling the global distribution of the two key vectors is essential for anticipating their potential range expansion under climate change, thereby providing a scientific basis for developing targeted surveillance and control strategies for LSD. Our ensemble models revealed distinct environmental drivers and distributional responses for A. aegypti and S. calcitrans. The distribution of A. aegypti was predicted to be primarily influenced by urban land cover as well as temperature-related variables, especially the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9). In contrast, S. calcitrans was strongly driven by managed pasture coverage and precipitation seasonality, indicating its reliance on livestock-associated habitats and stable moisture conditions. Under future climate scenarios, A. aegypti showed a pronounced potential for expansion into higher latitudes, while S. calcitrans exhibited range shifts toward temperate regions. Taking the 2050s (SSP1-2.6) as an example, the percentage gain for A. aegypti reached 96.2%, while for S. calcitrans, the percentage gain reached 43.98%. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple vector assessments in predicting LSD risk under climate change. Distinct habitat shifts of A. aegypti and S. calcitrans indicate the need for differentiated control strategies in different regions.