Modelling Coastal Connectivity in the Mediterranean Sea: Similar Effects of Changes in Hydrodynamics and Reduction in Planktonic Duration

IF 6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Global Ecology and Biogeography Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI:10.1111/geb.70116

Marco Andrello, Mohammadreza Mirzaei, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Matteo Sinerchia

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aim

Climate change can affect the dispersal of marine organisms and the connectivity of their populations through changes in hydrodynamics and reduction of propagule planktonic duration. Few studies have investigated both these effects over regional to global scales across a variety of release dates and sites. Here, we use hydrodynamic Lagrangian modelling to investigate these effects, their seasonal variation, and how they are modulated by the planktonic duration of dispersing propagules.

Location

Coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea.

Time Period

2020-decade, 2050-decade and 2090-decade.

Major Taxa Studied

Marine coastal organisms with planktonic propagules dispersed passively by ocean currents (e.g., seagrasses, mussels, sea urchins).

Methods

Simulations of propagule dispersal were carried out using particle tracking model simulations driven by sea current velocity fields derived from the POLCOMS hydrodynamic model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We released propagules over three decades and followed their transport for planktonic durations of up to 60 days. We quantified connectivity using three site-level variables (i.e., dispersal distance, coastal retention and netflow) and a clustering approach.

Results

Changes in hydrodynamics and reduction in planktonic duration had similar effects on connectivity, leading to changes of up to 60% of the values of the 2020-decade. While the largest effects of changes in hydrodynamics were confined to few areas, the effects of reduction in planktonic duration were less variable spatially and seasonally. The effects of hydrodynamic changes were larger and more variable in species with longer planktonic durations.

Main Conclusions

Because they had similar magnitudes, both the effects of changes in hydrodynamics and reduction in planktonic duration should be considered in future studies. The expected changes in connectivity have potential consequences for genetic structure, effectiveness of protected areas, and biological invasions. The dispersal dataset produced here is openly accessible and will support further research in these critical areas.

Abstract Image

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模拟地中海沿岸连通性：流体动力学变化和浮游持续时间缩短的类似影响

目的气候变化可以通过水体动力学的变化和浮游繁殖体持续时间的缩短来影响海洋生物的扩散和种群的连通性。很少有研究在不同的发布日期和地点从区域到全球范围内调查这两种影响。在这里，我们使用水动力拉格朗日模型来研究这些效应，它们的季节变化，以及它们是如何被扩散繁殖体的浮游持续时间调节的。地理位置地中海沿岸地区。2020-十年，2050-十年和2090-十年。主要分类群主要研究浮游繁殖体被洋流被动分散的沿海生物（如海草、贻贝、海胆）。方法在代表性浓度路径8.5下，利用POLCOMS水动力模型导出的海流速度场驱动的粒子跟踪模型模拟传播体扩散。我们在30年的时间里释放了繁殖体，并跟踪了它们在浮游生物中长达60天的运输过程。我们使用三个站点级变量（即扩散距离、海岸保留和netflow）和聚类方法量化了连通性。结果水动力变化和浮游持续时间的减少对连通性有相似的影响，导致2020- 10年值的变化高达60%。虽然水动力学变化的最大影响仅限于少数地区，但浮游生物持续时间缩短的影响在空间和季节上的变化较小。在浮游持续时间较长的物种中，水动力变化的影响更大，变化更大。由于它们的幅度相似，因此在未来的研究中应同时考虑水动力变化和浮游生物持续时间缩短的影响。连通性的预期变化对遗传结构、保护区的有效性和生物入侵具有潜在的影响。这里制作的分散数据集是开放的，将支持在这些关键领域的进一步研究。

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来源期刊

Global Ecology and Biogeography 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

3.10%

发文量

170

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Global Ecology and Biogeography (GEB) welcomes papers that investigate broad-scale (in space, time and/or taxonomy), general patterns in the organization of ecological systems and assemblages, and the processes that underlie them. In particular, GEB welcomes studies that use macroecological methods, comparative analyses, meta-analyses, reviews, spatial analyses and modelling to arrive at general, conceptual conclusions. Studies in GEB need not be global in spatial extent, but the conclusions and implications of the study must be relevant to ecologists and biogeographers globally, rather than being limited to local areas, or specific taxa. Similarly, GEB is not limited to spatial studies; we are equally interested in the general patterns of nature through time, among taxa (e.g., body sizes, dispersal abilities), through the course of evolution, etc. Further, GEB welcomes papers that investigate general impacts of human activities on ecological systems in accordance with the above criteria.