Range Shift and Climatic Refugia for Alpine Lichens Under Climate Change

IF 4.2 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Diversity and Distributions Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI:10.1111/ddi.70079

Luana Francesconi, Michele Di Musciano, Matteo Conti, Luca Di Nuzzo, Gabriele Gheza, Martin Grube, Helmut Mayrhofer, Stefano Martellos, Pier Luigi Nimis, Chiara Pistocchi, Chiara Vallese, Juri Nascimbene

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aim

The mountain biodiversity is highly threatened by climate change, with many species facing habitat reduction and/or local extinction. Poikilohydric organisms like lichens are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions and changes. A comprehensive overview of the impact of climate change on the future distribution of lichens is still missing. Thus, we quantified the range shift, loss in suitable areas and potential climatic refugia for more than 250 lichens, exploring these trends for each species and grouping them by their ecological needs and functional traits.

Location

Alps chain and surrounding areas (Europe).

Methods

We performed species distribution models to investigate the range shifts of 272 lichens under different climate change scenarios. Range shift was investigated by modelling gain and loss in suitability score along the elevational gradient, for each species separately and grouping them based on growth forms and temperature-affinities. Based on the ‘high suitability score stability’ index we developed maps of potential refuge areas.

Results

We predicted a huge loss of habitat suitability over time, especially under the SSP5-5.8. Fruticose lichens and cryophilous species will be the most impacted. Moreover, contrary to the assumption of an upward range shift, most species showed no significant relationship between altitude and increase in habitat suitability, suggesting different redistribution patterns for lichens. In the same way, climatic refugia are not only identified at high elevations but also in deep valleys and cold exposure.

Main Conclusions

The response of lichens to climate change is extremely heterogeneous, and an upper-range shift is less common than expected. Spatial redistribution is highly distinct among functional groups. The identified climatic refugia confirm this pattern, underlining the urgent need to improve the conservation effort, especially for fruticose and cryophilic species.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

气候变化下高山地衣的范围转移与气候避难

山区生物多样性受到气候变化的严重威胁，许多物种面临栖息地减少和/或局部灭绝。像地衣这样的千水生物对环境条件和变化极其敏感。关于气候变化对地衣未来分布影响的全面概述仍然缺乏。因此，我们量化了250多种地衣的范围转移、适宜地区的损失和潜在的气候避难所，探讨了每种地衣的这些趋势，并根据它们的生态需求和功能特征进行了分类。定位阿尔卑斯山脉及周边地区（欧洲）。方法建立物种分布模型，研究不同气候变化情景下272种地衣的分布范围变化。通过沿海拔梯度分别模拟适宜性评分的增益和损失，并根据生长形式和温度亲和性对每个物种进行分组，研究了范围转移。基于“高适宜性评分稳定性”指数，我们绘制了潜在避难区域的地图。结果随着时间的推移，生境适宜性将大幅下降，尤其是在SSP5-5.8的情况下。受影响最大的将是果地衣和低温植物。此外，与海拔上升的假设相反，大多数地衣物种在海拔高度和生境适宜性的增加之间没有显著的关系，这表明地衣的再分配模式不同。同样，气候避难所不仅存在于高海拔地区，也存在于深谷和寒冷环境中。地衣对气候变化的响应具有很强的异质性，上极差的变化并不常见。空间再分布在功能群之间具有高度的差异性。已确定的气候避难所证实了这一模式，强调了迫切需要加强保护工作，特别是对水果和低温物种。

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来源期刊

Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

4.30%

发文量

195

审稿时长

8-16 weeks

期刊介绍： Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.