Burden and Predictions of Untreated Caries in China, 1990–2039: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IF 2.2 Q3 DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE

Clinical and Experimental Dental Research Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI:10.1002/cre2.70211

Xiaolei Zhang, Chan-Na Zhao, Hu Zheng, Chunhui Zhao, Yuanyin Wang, Hai-Feng Pan, Wuli Li

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Abstract

Objective

This study aims to analyze the burden of untreated caries in deciduous and permanent teeth in China from 1990 to 2019 and projects its future trends through 2039.

Materials and Methods

Data on the burden of caries in primary and permanent teeth in China between 1990 and 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to assess the current burden of untreated caries. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was estimated using a joinpoint regression model to evaluate temporal trends in the burden of untreated caries. A Bayesian age–period–cohort model was applied to project the burden of untreated caries between 2019 and 2039.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of untreated caries in deciduous teeth in China increased by 6.8%, with an AAPC of 0.22 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.15–0.22, p < 0.05). The ASIR of caries in permanent teeth decreased by 1.3%, with an AAPC of −0.05 (95% CI: −0.04 to −0.05, p < 0.05). The highest incidence of caries in primary teeth was observed in the 0–4 age group, whereas the highest ASIR of caries in permanent teeth was observed in the 20–24 age group. No significant sex differences were found in the incidence rates of caries in either dentition. Projections from 2020 to 2039 indicate an upward trend in the ASIR of caries in both deciduous and permanent teeth.

Conclusions

Over the past 30 years, the burden of dental caries in China has increased significantly. Projections indicate that the ASIR of dental caries will continue to increase. Therefore, appropriate prevention and control strategies are required to reduce the burden of caries in the Chinese population.

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1990-2039年中国未治疗龋病负担及预测：2019年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析

目的分析1990 - 2019年中国乳牙和恒牙未治疗龋病的负担，并预测其到2039年的未来趋势。材料与方法从“2019年全球疾病负担”研究中提取1990年至2019年中国乳牙和恒牙龋齿负担数据，以评估目前未经治疗的龋齿负担。使用连接点回归模型来评估未经治疗的龋齿负担的时间趋势，估计平均年百分比变化（AAPC）。应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2019年至2039年间未经治疗的龋齿负担。结果1990 - 2019年，中国乳牙未经治疗龋病的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）上升6.8%，AAPC为0.22（95%可信区间[95% CI]: 0.15 ~ 0.22, p < 0.05）。恒牙龋的ASIR下降1.3%，AAPC为- 0.05 （95% CI: - 0.04 ~ - 0.05, p < 0.05）。乳牙龋病发病率以0 ~ 4岁年龄组最高，恒牙龋病ASIR以20 ~ 24岁年龄组最高。两种牙列的龋发病率均无明显性别差异。从2020年到2039年的预测表明，乳牙和恒牙的ASIR都有上升趋势。结论近30年来，中国龋病负担明显增加。预测表明，龋齿的ASIR将继续增加。因此，需要采取适当的预防和控制策略来减轻中国人群的龋齿负担。

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来源期刊

Clinical and Experimental Dental Research DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

165

审稿时长

26 weeks

期刊介绍： Clinical and Experimental Dental Research aims to provide open access peer-reviewed publications of high scientific quality representing original clinical, diagnostic or experimental work within all disciplines and fields of oral medicine and dentistry. The scope of Clinical and Experimental Dental Research comprises original research material on the anatomy, physiology and pathology of oro-facial, oro-pharyngeal and maxillofacial tissues, and functions and dysfunctions within the stomatognathic system, and the epidemiology, aetiology, prevention, diagnosis, prognosis and therapy of diseases and conditions that have an effect on the homeostasis of the mouth, jaws, and closely associated structures, as well as the healing and regeneration and the clinical aspects of replacement of hard and soft tissues with biomaterials, and the rehabilitation of stomatognathic functions. Studies that bring new knowledge on how to advance health on the individual or public health levels, including interactions between oral and general health and ill-health are welcome.