From twin transition to twice the burden? Digitalisation, energy demand, and economic growth

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108747

Jérôme Hambye-Verbrugghen , Stefano Bianchini , Paul E. Brockway , Emmanuel Aramendia , Matthew K. Heun , Zeke Marshall

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the potential of digitalisation to drive structural transformations towards a sustainable economy. We apply an index decomposition analysis (IDA) to understand the factors influencing energy demand in a panel of 31 high-income countries (1971–2019). The IDA framework includes four factors related to the scale and sectoral composition of the economy and technical improvements, accounting for the quality of energy flows and actual work potential through useful exergy measures. We apply the model at the sector level across 16 productive industries to explore cross-sector heterogeneity in energy demand, and then compare results across digitial intensity categories. We find that value added growth is the primary driver of energy use. While digitalisation alone does not fully explain trends in energy demand, it is strongly associated with value added growth in high digital intensity sectors and amplifies the use of energy. Left ungoverned, digitalisation risks intensifying economic–ecological tensions, but if steered towards socio-ecological priorities—while addressing the environmental costs of growth—it holds potential to deliver real benefits. We discuss these findings in the context of recent policy actions promoting the “twin” green and digital transition.

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从双胞胎过渡到两倍的负担？数字化、能源需求和经济增长

本文评估了数字化在推动结构转型以实现可持续经济方面的潜力。我们应用指数分解分析（IDA）来了解影响31个高收入国家（1971-2019）能源需求的因素。开发协会框架包括与经济的规模和部门构成和技术改进有关的四个因素，考虑到能源流动的质量和通过有用的能源措施的实际工作潜力。我们将该模型应用于16个生产行业的部门层面，以探索能源需求的跨部门异质性，然后比较不同数字强度类别的结果。我们发现，附加值增长是能源使用的主要驱动力。虽然数字化本身并不能完全解释能源需求的趋势，但它与高数字化强度行业的附加值增长密切相关，并扩大了能源的使用。如果不加治理，数字化可能会加剧经济与生态的紧张关系，但如果将其导向社会生态优先事项，同时解决增长的环境成本，它就有可能带来真正的效益。我们在促进绿色和数字化“孪生”转型的近期政策行动的背景下讨论这些发现。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecological Economics 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

12.00

自引率

5.70%

发文量

313

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Ecological Economics is concerned with extending and integrating the understanding of the interfaces and interplay between "nature''s household" (ecosystems) and "humanity''s household" (the economy). Ecological economics is an interdisciplinary field defined by a set of concrete problems or challenges related to governing economic activity in a way that promotes human well-being, sustainability, and justice. The journal thus emphasizes critical work that draws on and integrates elements of ecological science, economics, and the analysis of values, behaviors, cultural practices, institutional structures, and societal dynamics. The journal is transdisciplinary in spirit and methodologically open, drawing on the insights offered by a variety of intellectual traditions, and appealing to a diverse readership. Specific research areas covered include: valuation of natural resources, sustainable agriculture and development, ecologically integrated technology, integrated ecologic-economic modelling at scales from local to regional to global, implications of thermodynamics for economics and ecology, renewable resource management and conservation, critical assessments of the basic assumptions underlying current economic and ecological paradigms and the implications of alternative assumptions, economic and ecological consequences of genetically engineered organisms, and gene pool inventory and management, alternative principles for valuing natural wealth, integrating natural resources and environmental services into national income and wealth accounts, methods of implementing efficient environmental policies, case studies of economic-ecologic conflict or harmony, etc. New issues in this area are rapidly emerging and will find a ready forum in Ecological Economics.