High-Resolution rooftop photovoltaic potential assessment for a resilient energy system in Ukraine

IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Conversion and Management-X Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ecmx.2025.101242

Winkler C. , Dabrock K. , Kapustyan S. , Hart C. , Heinrichs H. , Weinand J.M. , Linßen J. , Stolten D.

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Abstract

Rooftop photovoltaic (RTPV) systems are essential for building a decarbonized and, due to its decentralized structure, more resilient energy system, and are particularly important for Ukraine, where recent conflicts have damaged more than half of its electricity and heat supply capacity. Favorable solar irradiation conditions make Ukraine a strong candidate for large-scale PV deployment, but effective policy requires detailed data on spatial and temporal generation potential. This study fills the data gap by using open-source satellite building footprint data corrected with high-resolution data from eastern Germany. This approach allowed accurate estimates of rooftop area and PV capacity and generation across Ukraine, with simulations revealing a capacity potential of 238.8 GW and a generation potential of 290 TWh/a excluding north-facing. The majority of this potential is located in oblasts (provinces) across the country with large cities such as Donetsk, Dnipro or Kyiv and surroundings. These results, validated against previous studies and available as open data, confirm Ukraine’s significant potential for RTPV, supporting both energy resilience and climate goals.

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乌克兰弹性能源系统的高分辨率屋顶光伏潜力评估

屋顶光伏（RTPV）系统对于建立一个脱碳的能源系统至关重要，并且由于其分散的结构，更具弹性，对乌克兰尤其重要，因为最近的冲突已经破坏了乌克兰一半以上的电力和供热能力。有利的太阳照射条件使乌克兰成为大规模光伏部署的有力候选国，但有效的政策需要详细的时空发电潜力数据。这项研究通过使用开源卫星建筑足迹数据和来自德国东部的高分辨率数据进行校正，填补了数据空白。这种方法可以准确估计乌克兰的屋顶面积、光伏容量和发电量，模拟显示，不包括朝北的潜在容量为238.8吉瓦，发电潜力为290太瓦时/年。这种潜力的大部分位于全国各地的州（省），拥有顿涅茨克、第聂伯罗或基辅等大城市及其周边地区。这些结果与之前的研究结果相对照，并作为公开数据提供，证实了乌克兰在RTPV方面的巨大潜力，支持能源弹性和气候目标。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Conversion and Management-X Multiple-

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.20%

发文量

180

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Energy Conversion and Management: X is the open access extension of the reputable journal Energy Conversion and Management, serving as a platform for interdisciplinary research on a wide array of critical energy subjects. The journal is dedicated to publishing original contributions and in-depth technical review articles that present groundbreaking research on topics spanning energy generation, utilization, conversion, storage, transmission, conservation, management, and sustainability. The scope of Energy Conversion and Management: X encompasses various forms of energy, including mechanical, thermal, nuclear, chemical, electromagnetic, magnetic, and electric energy. It addresses all known energy resources, highlighting both conventional sources like fossil fuels and nuclear power, as well as renewable resources such as solar, biomass, hydro, wind, geothermal, and ocean energy.