Multiscale Risk Spillovers and External Driving Factors: Evidence From the Global Futures and Spot Markets of Staple Foods.

Abstract

Stable and efficient food markets are crucial for global food security. However, international staple food markets are increasingly exposed to complex risks, including intensified risk contagion and increasing external uncertainties. This paper systematically investigates risk spillovers in global staple food markets and explores the key determinants of these spillover effects, combining innovative decomposition-reconstruction techniques, risk connectedness analysis, and random forest models. The findings reveal that short-term components exhibit the highest volatility, with futures components generally more volatile than spot components. Further analysis identifies two main risk transmission patterns, namely, cross-grain and cross-timescale transmission, and clarifies the distinct roles of each component in various net risk spillover networks. Furthermore, price drivers, external uncertainties, and core supply-demand indicators significantly influence these spillover effects, with the heterogeneous importance of varying factors in explaining different risk spillovers. This study provides valuable information on the risk dynamics of staple food markets, offers evidence-based guidance to policymakers and market participants to improve risk warning and mitigation efforts, and supports the stabilization of international food markets and the protection of global food security.