Tracking Atmospheric River Impacts on Greenland Climate and Glacier Hydrology Over the Past Decade, 2010–2019

Abstract

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) play an important role in influencing polar climate systems and glacier hydrology, making their study essential for understanding climate change impacts in these sensitive regions. With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, the polar ice and snow environment is being significantly affected. This study analyzes AR over Greenland, focusing on its spatiotemporal distribution, phased aggregation, migration characteristics, and implications for Greenland deformation. We examine Greenland's climate elements (sensible heat flux, specific humidity, surface air temperature), surface mass balance (SMB) and load deformation, assessing their correlation with AR. We quantify the frequency, duration, and distribution of AR landfalls in Greenland from 2010 to 2019, evaluating their impact on climate patterns and SMB. Results indicate ARs are concentrated in central-western, south-western (SW), and south-eastern (SE) Greenland, with similar concentrations in sensible heat flux, specific humidity, surface air temperature, and AR precipitation deformation during events. We estimate AR landfalls significantly impact SMB, contributing over 15% annually, with typical impacts ranging from 25% to 30%. AR landfalls have approximately double the impact on SMB, observable in monthly SMB variations, including seasonal factors, such as the extreme melt event in summer 2012. The influence of AR on Greenland's glacial hydrology is increasing, associated with heat transfer mechanisms that enhance accumulation/melt processes on the Greenland Ice Sheet, affecting SMB.