The effect of non-optimal ambient temperature on daily mortality in Colombia 2010–2019

IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Nicolas Borchers-Arriagada, Antonio Gasparrini, Laura A. Rodriguez-Villamizar
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Abstract

Adverse effects of non-optimal temperatures on mortality have been reported in different climates. However, only a low number of studies have been conducted in tropical locations where these effects might differ. Here, we estimate the association between ambient air temperature and all-cause mortality and assess the impact of non-optimal temperatures on attributable mortality at national and subnational levels in Colombia during 2010–2019. We obtained daily temperature and mortality data for 32 departments and conducted a two-stage analysis. In stage-1 we fitted a time-series Poisson model for each department and estimated the mortality-temperature association using distributed-lag-nonlinear models with 7–28 days of lag. In stage-2, we pooled these estimates using a multivariate meta-analytic model including mean temperature, relative humidity, and a multidimensional poverty index. We calculated attributable deaths and fractions due to non-optimal temperatures and due to overall heat and cold. We analyzed 2,561,561 deaths and found marked differences in exposure–response curves of mortality-temperature, where most departments showed acute heat effects but no cold effects for the 7-days lag. This lag-response curve for heat showed that the risk of death is higher during the same day (lag 0) of extreme temperatures and decreases after the third day. The country attributable fraction due to non-optimal temperature was higher for heat (1.77, 95% CI 1.16 – 2.31) during the 0–7 days lag, but higher for cold temperatures (4.68, 95% CI 2.34 – 6.72) during the 0–28 days lag. There was high heterogeneity in the estimated risks between departments. These results should inform planning adaptation strategies for climate change differentiated at subnational level.

非最佳环境温度对哥伦比亚2010-2019年日死亡率的影响
在不同的气候条件下,非最佳温度对死亡率的不利影响已被报道。然而,在这些影响可能不同的热带地区进行的研究数量很少。在这里,我们估计了2010-2019年哥伦比亚国家和地方各级环境空气温度与全因死亡率之间的关系,并评估了非最佳温度对归因死亡率的影响。我们获得了32个科室的每日体温和死亡率数据,并进行了两阶段分析。在第一阶段,我们拟合了每个部门的时间序列泊松模型,并使用延迟7-28天的分布滞后非线性模型估计了死亡率-温度的关联。在第二阶段,我们使用多元元分析模型(包括平均温度、相对湿度和多维贫困指数)汇总了这些估计。我们计算了由于非最佳温度和由于整体冷热造成的可归因死亡人数和比例。我们分析了2,561,561例死亡,发现死亡率-温度的暴露-反应曲线存在显著差异,其中大多数部门在7天的滞后时间内表现出急性热效应,但没有冷效应。高温的滞后反应曲线表明,在极端温度的同一天(滞后0)死亡风险较高,第三天之后死亡率降低。在0-7天的滞后期间,由于非最佳温度导致的国家归因比例在高温下较高(1.77,95% CI 1.16 - 2.31),但在0-28天的滞后期间,由于低温导致的国家归因比例较高(4.68,95% CI 2.34 - 6.72)。科室间风险估计存在高度异质性。这些结果应该为规划在次国家层面有区别的气候变化适应战略提供信息。
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来源期刊
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
2.00%
发文量
146
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health. It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes. International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements. This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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