Modeling the potential distribution of woody species and identifying restoration-priority areas in ecologically vulnerable regions of the Loess Plateau under climate change: supporting SDG 15.1

Abstract

The accurate identification of priority areas for woody species restoration and conservation is critical for achieving sustainable management in heterogeneous forest ecosystems. Currently, the strategic placement of suitable woody species in optimal locations remains inadequately addressed, hindering progress toward sustainable development goals. In this study, we used the Loess Plateau as the study area. Conceptual model Sensitivity-Resilience-Pressure (SRP) and subjective-objective assignment (SOA) method were applied to perform ecological vulnerability assessment. Meanwhile, the particle swarm algorithm (PSO) was used to optimize the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to simulate the potential habitat areas of 10 woody species. Based on these findings, we developed a rule-based prioritization framework for woody species restoration and conservation, identified priority management zones, and proposed optimized management strategies. The results showed that regional ecological vulnerability decreases from north-west to south-east. Between 106° and 108°E and 36°-38°N, ecosystem vulnerability was higher. Suitable areas for woody species are primarily located in the south and east, while the west and north predominantly feature unsuitable areas. Salix babylonica and Juglans regia account for up to 53 % of the total natural development area. Priority I management areas for Robinia pseudoacacia and Caragana korshinskii were 73000 km² and 53000 km² respectively. Priority management areas for the other eight woody species are mainly distributed in the southeast. The total carbon stock of existing forests is projected to increase by 2 % or 3.75 Tg C after implementing priority management of woody species. The study constructed systematic measures from four dimensions: multi-objective synergy, multi-measure combination, multi-programme adaptation and multi-means. The results of the study are expected to support the management of woody species for sustainable development.