[Evaluation of potential suitable habitats for Gastrodia elata in China under future climate and land use change scenarios].

Abstract

Climate and land use changes may significantly impact the habitat distribution of Gastrodia elata, an endangered traditional medicinal plant. Accurately predicting its future potential suitable habitats is crucial for its conservation and sustainable development. This study integrates current distribution data of G. elata with 56 environmental variables and uses the MaxEnt model to predict changes in its suitable habitats under current climate conditions and four future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that October precipitation and December minimum temperature are key environmental factors influencing its distribution. Under the current climate, optimal habitats for G. elata are concentrated in montane forest areas in Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hubei, which meet the species' requirements for understory growth. Across all future scenarios, the suitable habitat of G. elata consistently shows a stable northward shift, with a steady increase in suitable areas, extending to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huang-Huai region, and even expanding into Liaoning, Jilin, and southern Heilongjiang. Land use analysis, taking into account the protection of arable land and the utilization of forest resources, indicates that by 2100, under future climate conditions, arable land in medium-to high-suitability areas is expected to increase by 30%-124%. While the conversion of non-suitable forest land into suitable habitats is projected to increase by 5%-52%, the growth of medium-to high-suitability areas within forests is relatively modest, ranging from 1% to 24%. These findings highlight the need to balance agricultural expansion with forest resource conservation to ensure the long-term sustainability of G. elata and provide scientific guidance for future suitable habitat management.