Unprecedented UK heatwave harmonised drivers of fuel moisture creating extreme temperate wildfire risk.

Abstract

Climate change is resulting in more extreme fire weather during major heatwaves. Across temperate Europe, shrub landscapes dominate the area burned, with the moisture content of fuels during these events determining the threat posed. Current controls on the moisture content of temperate fuel constituents and their response to future extreme heatwaves are not known. We took field measurements of live and dead heather (Calluna vulgaris) and organic soil moisture content across the UK over 3 years, including an intensive sampling campaign during the July 2022 heatwave. Here, we show that the fuel moisture content of live fuel is associated significantly with phenological variables, dead fuel only with weather variables, whilst organic-rich ground fuels are more associated with landscape variables. However, during the record 2022 heatwave there was a harmonisation in fuel moisture controls across different fuel constituents, with those controls being driven by weather alone. This caused synchronised extreme dryness outside of current seasonal norms across all fuel constituents at the same time and place. Future intense summer heatwaves can therefore be expected to align the most severe conditions for fire ignition, spread and impact in traditionally non-fire prone regions, producing humid temperate landscapes susceptible to extreme wildfire events.