New evidence on the determinants of agri-food GHG emissions in low and middle-income countries

Abstract

This study applies newly compiled FAO data to investigate the drivers of GHG emissions from the agri-food sector in 106 low- and middle-income countries over the 1993–2021 period. However, unlike the majority of previous studies, it investigates possible differences across different GHG, income levels, and continents using advanced econometric tools. The results for the full sample suggest that all potential explanatory variables except trade are positively correlated with agri-food GHG emissions. Nevertheless, there exist significant differences between continents and groups of countries with different income levels. For instance, population emerges as a significant determinant of agri-food emissions in Asia and Europe. The Gross Value of agricultural production per capita shows a consistent and significant positive effect on emissions in all specifications for Asia, while for other continents, its elasticity is lower and lacks statistical significance in some specifications. Furthermore, fertilizer intensity and livestock size are a strong driver of GHG emissions across all continents. Finally, the results of additional analyses show that there are substantial differences in the determinants of particular GHG types. Specifically, population and livestock size have a positive and statistically significant impact on both CH₄ and N₂O emissions across all specifications. However, in the fixed-effects specifications, these variables have no significant impact on CO₂. On the other hand, the ratio of forestland to total land has a positive and significant impact on CO₂ while the relationship with CH₄ and N₂O is less clear. Consequently, this study provides a detailed picture of the determinants of emissions that could be used to tailor more efficient mitigation policies.