The paradoxical impact of drought on West Nile virus risk: insights from long-term ecological data.

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are deeply embedded within ecological communities, with environmental changes-particularly climate change-shaping their dynamics. Increasingly intense droughts across the globe have profound implications for the transmission of these diseases, as drought conditions can alter mosquito breeding habitats, host-seeking behaviours and mosquito-host contact rates. To quantify the effect of drought on disease transmission, we use West Nile virus as a model system and leverage a robust mosquito and virus dataset consisting of over 500 000 trap nights collected from 2010 to 2023, spanning a historic drought period followed by atmospheric rivers. We pair this surveillance dataset with a novel modelling approach that incorporates monthly changes in bird host community competence, along with drought conditions, to estimate the effect of drought severity on West Nile virus risk using panel regression models. Our results show that while drought decreases mosquito abundances, it paradoxically increases West Nile virus infection rates. This counterintuitive pattern probably stems from reduced water availability, which concentrates mosquitoes and pathogen-amplifying bird hosts around limited water sources, thereby increasing disease transmission risk. However, the magnitude of the effect depends critically on mosquito species, suggesting species-specific behavioural traits are key to understanding the effect of drought on mosquito-borne disease risk across real landscapes.