Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess deaths: descriptive study, Pernambuco, 2020-2022.

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Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil Pub Date : 2025-09-01 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1590/S2237-96222025v34e20240286.en

Hélder Limeira Campos, Gabriel Jesus Alves Fernandes, Daphne Galvão de Sousa, Paloma Luna Maranhão Conrado, Évelyn de Oliveira Campos, Ricardo Augusto Barros Dos Santos Filho, Polyana Felipe Ferreira da Costa, Carolina Maria da Silva, George Alessandro Maranhão Conrado, Pauliana Valéria Machado Galvão

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Abstract

Objective: To estimate the excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in Pernambuco between 2020 and 2022.

Methods: This descriptive study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). The excess deaths, expressed as the observed-to-expected deaths ratio, and the P-score, expressed as the proportional excess deaths, were evaluated. The estimated deaths used historical data from 2015 to 2019 based on linear regression models.

Results: The highest proportional excess mortality for 2020 was evidenced in the Regional Health Management Department I, III, and IV (28.0%, 25.9%, and 18.1%); for 2021, in the Regional Health Management Departments I, XII and VIII (35.4%, 24.7% and 23.2%); and for 2022, in the Regional Health Management Departments XI, IV and VII (20.1%, 19.1% and 16.3%).

Conclusion: The distribution of excess mortality in Pernambuco varied during the pandemic years and highlighted the inland spread of COVID-19-related deaths.

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2019冠状病毒病大流行对超额死亡的影响：描述性研究，伯南布哥，2020-2022。

目的：估计2020年至2022年伯南布哥州COVID-19大流行期间的超额死亡人数。方法：本描述性研究使用来自死亡率信息系统（SIM）的数据。以观察到的预期死亡比表示的超额死亡和以比例超额死亡表示的p分数进行评估。估计死亡人数使用了基于线性回归模型的2015年至2019年的历史数据。结果：2020年比例超额死亡率最高的是区域卫生管理一、三、四部门（28.0%、25.9%和18.1%）；2021年，在区域卫生管理一、十二和八部门（35.4%、24.7%和23.2%）；2022年，区域卫生管理十一、四、七部门（20.1%、19.1%和16.3%）。结论：在大流行年份，伯南布哥州超额死亡率的分布有所不同，并突出了与covid -19相关死亡的内陆传播。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil

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