Projecting Global Trends and Inequalities in Adult Overweight and Obesity, 2023–2040: Findings From the NCD-RisC Database

IF 4.7 2区医学 Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

Obesity Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI:10.1002/oby.24358

Jinli Liu, Zeping Fang, Qianhui Lu, Yanan Wang, Lei Zhang

{"title":"Projecting Global Trends and Inequalities in Adult Overweight and Obesity, 2023–2040: Findings From the NCD-RisC Database","authors":"Jinli Liu, Zeping Fang, Qianhui Lu, Yanan Wang, Lei Zhang","doi":"10.1002/oby.24358","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Objective</h3>\n \n <p>This study quantifies the global burden of overweight and obesity, projects future trends, and examines associated health inequalities.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>Overweight and obesity burden data were obtained from the NCD-RisC database. Trends from 1990 to 2022 were analyzed, and a Bayesian model was used to project changes for 2023–2040. Cross-national health inequalities were measured using the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative concentration index (RCI).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>Globally, overweight prevalence rose from 17.50% in 1990 to 28.00% in 2022 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 1.48%) and is projected to reach 43.97% by 2040 (AAPC = 1.13%). Obesity prevalence grew from 6.44% to 16.06% (AAPC = 2.46%) and is projected to surge to 38.96% by 2040 (AAPC = 4.96%). The SII for overweight burden dropped from 33.74% in 1990 to 16.24% in 2022, and it is projected to reverse to −2.42% by 2040. For obesity (BMI, ≥ 30.0 kg/m<sup>2</sup>) and mild obesity (BMI, 30.0–34.9 kg/m<sup>2</sup>), the SII declined from 20.12% to 18.58% and from 14.22% to 10.02%, respectively, with further drops to 9.35% and −1.70% by 2040. From 1990 to 2040, the share of the global prevalence burden of overweight and obesity in countries with the lowest GDP per capita rose from 15% to 22% and from 6% to 26%, respectively. The relative gradient inequality, measured by RCI, also showed similar findings.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>The global burden of overweight and obesity has significantly increased from 1990 to 2040. Health inequalities decreased from 1990 to 2022, with the burden mainly in higher-income countries. However, by 2040, the burden of overweight and mild obesity is projected to shift to lower-income countries, highlighting the need for targeted health policies and interventions.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":215,"journal":{"name":"Obesity","volume":"33 10","pages":"1955-1967"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/oby.24358","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Obesity","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/oby.24358","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

This study quantifies the global burden of overweight and obesity, projects future trends, and examines associated health inequalities.

Methods

Overweight and obesity burden data were obtained from the NCD-RisC database. Trends from 1990 to 2022 were analyzed, and a Bayesian model was used to project changes for 2023–2040. Cross-national health inequalities were measured using the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative concentration index (RCI).

Results

Globally, overweight prevalence rose from 17.50% in 1990 to 28.00% in 2022 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 1.48%) and is projected to reach 43.97% by 2040 (AAPC = 1.13%). Obesity prevalence grew from 6.44% to 16.06% (AAPC = 2.46%) and is projected to surge to 38.96% by 2040 (AAPC = 4.96%). The SII for overweight burden dropped from 33.74% in 1990 to 16.24% in 2022, and it is projected to reverse to −2.42% by 2040. For obesity (BMI, ≥ 30.0 kg/m²) and mild obesity (BMI, 30.0–34.9 kg/m²), the SII declined from 20.12% to 18.58% and from 14.22% to 10.02%, respectively, with further drops to 9.35% and −1.70% by 2040. From 1990 to 2040, the share of the global prevalence burden of overweight and obesity in countries with the lowest GDP per capita rose from 15% to 22% and from 6% to 26%, respectively. The relative gradient inequality, measured by RCI, also showed similar findings.

Conclusions

The global burden of overweight and obesity has significantly increased from 1990 to 2040. Health inequalities decreased from 1990 to 2022, with the burden mainly in higher-income countries. However, by 2040, the burden of overweight and mild obesity is projected to shift to lower-income countries, highlighting the need for targeted health policies and interventions.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

预测2023-2040年成人超重和肥胖的全球趋势和不平等：来自NCD-RisC数据库的发现

目的：本研究量化了超重和肥胖的全球负担，预测了未来趋势，并检查了相关的健康不平等。方法：从NCD-RisC数据库中获取超重和肥胖负担数据。分析了1990年至2022年的趋势，并使用贝叶斯模型预测了2023-2040年的变化。采用不平等斜率指数（SII）和相对浓度指数（RCI）测量跨国健康不平等。结果：全球超重患病率从1990年的17.50%上升到2022年的28.00%（年均百分比变化[AAPC] = 1.48%），预计到2040年将达到43.97% （AAPC = 1.13%）。肥胖患病率从6.44%上升到16.06% (AAPC = 2.46%)，预计到2040年将飙升至38.96% （AAPC = 4.96%）。超重负担SII指数从1990年的33.74%降至2022年的16.24%，预计到2040年将回落至-2.42%。肥胖（BMI≥30.0 kg/m2）和轻度肥胖（BMI 30.0 ~ 34.9 kg/m2）的SII分别从20.12%下降到18.58%和14.22%下降到10.02%，到2040年将进一步下降到9.35%和-1.70%。从1990年到2040年，在人均国内生产总值最低的国家中，超重和肥胖的全球流行负担所占比例分别从15%上升到22%和从6%上升到26%。相对梯度不平等，由RCI测量，也显示了类似的发现。结论：从1990年到2040年，全球超重和肥胖负担显著增加。从1990年到2022年，卫生不平等现象有所减少，负担主要发生在高收入国家。然而，到2040年，超重和轻度肥胖的负担预计将转移到低收入国家，突出表明需要制定有针对性的卫生政策和干预措施。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Obesity 医学-内分泌学与代谢

CiteScore

11.70

自引率

1.40%

发文量

261

审稿时长

2-4 weeks

期刊介绍： Obesity is the official journal of The Obesity Society and is the premier source of information for increasing knowledge, fostering translational research from basic to population science, and promoting better treatment for people with obesity. Obesity publishes important peer-reviewed research and cutting-edge reviews, commentaries, and public health and medical developments.