Megan C. Diaz PhD , Jidong Huang PhD , Sarah D. Mills PhD, MPH , Shelley D. Golden PhD, MPH , Kurt M. Ribisl PhD
{"title":"Changes in Price, Consumption, Prevalence, and State Revenue of Transitioning Cigarette Sales to State-Controlled Outlets","authors":"Megan C. Diaz PhD , Jidong Huang PhD , Sarah D. Mills PhD, MPH , Shelley D. Golden PhD, MPH , Kurt M. Ribisl PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.amepre.2025.108078","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Policies that phase out the retail sale of tobacco products have been recommended to accelerate the tobacco endgame and reach negligible tobacco use rates. Using simulation modeling, this study assessed how a policy that transitions cigarette sales to state-controlled outlets may change prices and thus affect state revenue, cigarette pack sales, and smoking prevalence.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Tax Burden On Tobacco, models were developed to examine 3 potential scenarios resulting from a policy that transitions the sales of cigarette products to state-controlled outlets in Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Virginia. In Model 1, each state would keep cigarette pack prices at their current retail price but retain markup; in Model 2, cigarette pack prices would increase by 7%; and in Model 3, each state would increase prices to meet a consumption target reduction of 5%. For each price scenario, additional models that also considered changes to consumer travel and time costs were run.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Across all models, state revenue increased in each state. Results suggest that the policy would increase revenue by at least 16% in Oregon to 302% in Virginia. In models that assumed that the cigarette pack price would increase, cigarette pack consumption and smoking prevalence declined. Declines in pack consumption and smoking prevalence ranged from 1% to 5% across states. Findings were robust to different assumptions about total own-price elasticities in sensitivity analyses.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Transitioning cigarette sales to state-controlled outlets may increase state revenue while reducing cigarette consumption and smoking prevalence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50805,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Preventive Medicine","volume":"69 6","pages":"Article 108078"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American Journal of Preventive Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S074937972500546X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Introduction
Policies that phase out the retail sale of tobacco products have been recommended to accelerate the tobacco endgame and reach negligible tobacco use rates. Using simulation modeling, this study assessed how a policy that transitions cigarette sales to state-controlled outlets may change prices and thus affect state revenue, cigarette pack sales, and smoking prevalence.
Methods
Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Tax Burden On Tobacco, models were developed to examine 3 potential scenarios resulting from a policy that transitions the sales of cigarette products to state-controlled outlets in Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Virginia. In Model 1, each state would keep cigarette pack prices at their current retail price but retain markup; in Model 2, cigarette pack prices would increase by 7%; and in Model 3, each state would increase prices to meet a consumption target reduction of 5%. For each price scenario, additional models that also considered changes to consumer travel and time costs were run.
Results
Across all models, state revenue increased in each state. Results suggest that the policy would increase revenue by at least 16% in Oregon to 302% in Virginia. In models that assumed that the cigarette pack price would increase, cigarette pack consumption and smoking prevalence declined. Declines in pack consumption and smoking prevalence ranged from 1% to 5% across states. Findings were robust to different assumptions about total own-price elasticities in sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions
Transitioning cigarette sales to state-controlled outlets may increase state revenue while reducing cigarette consumption and smoking prevalence.
期刊介绍:
The American Journal of Preventive Medicine is the official journal of the American College of Preventive Medicine and the Association for Prevention Teaching and Research. It publishes articles in the areas of prevention research, teaching, practice and policy. Original research is published on interventions aimed at the prevention of chronic and acute disease and the promotion of individual and community health.
Of particular emphasis are papers that address the primary and secondary prevention of important clinical, behavioral and public health issues such as injury and violence, infectious disease, women''s health, smoking, sedentary behaviors and physical activity, nutrition, diabetes, obesity, and substance use disorders. Papers also address educational initiatives aimed at improving the ability of health professionals to provide effective clinical prevention and public health services. Papers on health services research pertinent to prevention and public health are also published. The journal also publishes official policy statements from the two co-sponsoring organizations, review articles, media reviews, and editorials. Finally, the journal periodically publishes supplements and special theme issues devoted to areas of current interest to the prevention community.