Global burden of thyroid cancer attributed to high body mass index and predictive trends: estimated results from the global health data study, 1990-2021.

Abstract

Background: Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine tumor, impacting patients' quality of life and contributing to a significant societal burden. This study aims to estimate the global burden of thyroid cancer attributable to High Body Mass Index(HBMI) over the past 30 years.

Methods: The mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) attributable to HBMI for thyroid cancer were extracted. A generalized linear model with a Gaussian distribution was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASRs, quantifying the temporal trends in the global burden of thyroid cancer due to HBMI. The strength and direction of the association between the Social Developmeant Index (SDI) and DALY rates were measured using Spearman's rank correlation. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict deaths patterns of thyroid cancer from 2020 to 2035.

Results: Globally, the DALYs for thyroid cancer increased from 1.49 in 1990 to 1.68 in 2021, with an EAPC of 0.377 (95% CI: 0.342-0.411). 127 countries or regions showed an upward trend. This trend was particularly pronounced in low SDI, middle SDI, and low-middle SDI regions, while a declining trend was observed in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions.The global ASR of death(ASDR) and DALYs were all higher in females than in males.From 2020 to 2035, the global burden of thyroid cancer, measured in DALYs and ASDR, are both projected to exhibit a gradual upward trend.

Conclusions: High Body Mass Index is associated with thyroid cancer. Comprehensive control of body weight may help mitigate or even prevent the development of thyroid cancer, providing valuable data for future prevention and control efforts.