Population health impacts from the taxation of salt and sugar in the United Kingdom.

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the potential health benefits from the reduction in consumption of salt and sugar following the introduction of a proposed tax on salt and sugar in the United Kingdom (UK).

Design: Epidemiological modelling study. Life table modelling was used to estimate the expected population health benefits from the reduction in consumption of salt and sugar for four scenarios, each reflecting different manufacturer and consumer responses the proposed tax. Relative risks for twenty-four disease-risk pairs were applied, exploring different pathways between salt and sugar consumption, and mortality and morbidity.

Setting: UK.

Participants: Population of the UK.

Results: The results show that life expectancy in the UK could be increased by 1·7 (0·3-3·6) to 4·9 (1·0-9·4) months, depending on the degree of industry and consumer response to the tax. The tax could also lead to up to nearly 2 (0·4-3·6) million fewer cases of preventable chronic diseases and an increase of as much as 3·5 (0·8-6·4) million years of life gained. The largest health benefits would accrue from reduced mortality and morbidity from CVD.

Conclusions: Significant benefits to population health could be expected from extending the current tax on sugar-sweetened beverages to other sugary foods and from adding a tax on foods high in salt. The proposed dietary changes are likely to be insufficient to reach national public health targets; hence, additional measures to reduce the burden of chronic disease in the UK will be equally critical to consider.