Geographical correlation and prevalence of scabies in Ardabil Province the northwest of Iran 2016-2024: A spatiotemporal analysis.

Abstract

Human scabies is an arthropod-borne disease considered a public health problem in some countries worldwide, and its incidence is increasing with rising temperatures in various regions. This is a descriptive cross-sectional retrospective study conducted from 2016 to 2024. Disease data were obtained from the Center for Disease Control of Ardabil University of Medical Sciences. Geographically weighted regression, kriging, and inverse distance weighting were used to investigate spatial correlation and model the disease by ArcMap GIS 10.8.2 software. The prevalence of scabies has increased from 6 per 100,000 people in 2016 to 13.22 in 2024. High-risk areas for the disease detected in the central region have a standard deviation of 1.5-2.5% higher than other regions of the province; this region is considered a critical hotspot for scabies with 84.66% of cases being female and 15.34% male (P < 0.05). The more than doubling of the disease prevalence in Ardabil province and the dispersion of the disease in various regions, especially the central regions, should be considered by health officials in Ardabil province.