Machine Learning for Personalized Prediction of Electrocardiogram (EKG) Use in Emergency Care.

Abstract

Background: Electrocardiograms (EKGs) are essential tools in emergency medicine, often used to evaluate chest pain, dyspnea, and other symptoms suggestive of cardiac dysfunction. Yet, EKGs are not universally administered to all emergency department (ED) patients. Understanding and predicting which patients receive an EKG may offer insights into clinical decision making, resource allocation, and potential disparities in care. This study examines whether integrating structured clinical data with free-text patient narratives can improve prediction of EKG utilization in the ED. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study to predict electrocardiogram (EKG) utilization using data from 13,115 adult emergency department (ED) visits in the nationally representative 2021 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey-Emergency Department (NHAMCS-ED), leveraging both structured features-demographics, vital signs, comorbidities, arrival mode, and triage acuity, with the most influential selected via Lasso regression-and unstructured patient narratives transformed into numerical embeddings using Clinical-BERT. Four supervised learning models-Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB)-were trained on three inputs (structured data only, text embeddings only, and a late-fusion combined model); hyperparameters were optimized by grid search with 5-fold cross-validation; performance was evaluated via AUROC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and precision; and interpretability was assessed using SHAP values and Permutation Feature Importance. Results: EKGs were administered in 30.6% of adult ED visits. Patients who received EKGs were more likely to be older, White, Medicare-insured, and to present with abnormal vital signs or higher triage severity. Across all models, the combined data approach yielded superior predictive performance. The SVM and LR achieved the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.860 and 0.861) when using both structured and unstructured data, compared to 0.772 with structured data alone and 0.823 and 0.822 with unstructured data alone. Similar improvements were observed in accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Conclusions: Integrating structured clinical data with patient narratives significantly enhances the ability to predict EKG utilization in the emergency department. These findings support a personalized medicine framework by demonstrating how multimodal data integration can enable individualized, real-time decision support in the ED.