Chesapeake Bay Watershed residents' support for varied scenarios for agricultural systems in urbanized landscapes.

Abstract

To help envision the desired futures for agricultural systems in urbanized landscapes over the next 25 years, we assess the support of agricultural and nonagricultural residents for scenarios that propose alternative approaches to achieve long-term economic and environmental sustainability for agriculture in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). The scenarios include (1) business as usual-or maintaining current trends, (2) providing incentives (e.g., public funds) that help agricultural producers engage in best management practices, (3) preserving farmland, (4) increasing farm profitability through enhanced local food efforts and strengthening rural and urban relationships, and (5) encouraging a societal shift from consumption of meat to vegetable-based proteins. We draw upon data from an online panel of 955 residents and a mail/online survey of 365 producers across the southern part of the CBW (Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia) in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Our results indicate that nonagricultural residents mostly supported Scenarios 3 and 4, while agricultural residents mostly supported Scenarios 2 and 3. The least supported scenarios from both groups were Scenarios 1 and 5. Residents' level of education, income, other sources of income, political identity, family farm ownership, age, and gender are related to support of the top scenarios. This information can help stakeholders and policymakers understand the broader landscape of perceptions and help with state or regional planning efforts.