The association between rainfall and human leptospirosis in Aotearoa New Zealand.

IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Toni Tana, Masako Wada, Jackie Benschop, Emilie Vallee
{"title":"The association between rainfall and human leptospirosis in Aotearoa New Zealand.","authors":"Toni Tana, Masako Wada, Jackie Benschop, Emilie Vallee","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825100423","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Leptospirosis remains a significant occupational zoonosis in New Zealand, and emerging serovar shifts warrant a closer examination of climate-related transmission pathways. This study aimed to examine whether total monthly rainfall is associated with reported leptospirosis in humans in New Zealand. Poisson and negative binomial models were developed to examine the relationship between rainfall at 0-, 1-, 2-, and 3-month lags and the incidence of leptospirosis during the month of the report. Total monthly rainfall was positively associated with the occurrence of human leptospirosis in the following month by a factor of 1.017 (95% CI: 1.007-1.026), 1.023 at the 2-month lag (95% CI:1.013-1.032), and 1.018 at the 3-month lag (95% CI: 1.009-1.028) for every additional cm of rainfall. Variation was present in the magnitude of association for each of the individual serovars considered, suggesting different exposure pathways. Assuming that the observed associations are causal, this study supports that additional human cases are likely to occur associated with increased levels of rainfall. This provides the first evidence for including rainfall in a leptospirosis early warning system and to design targeted communication and prevention measures and provide resource allocation, particularly after heavy rainfall in New Zealand.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e112"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiology and Infection","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825100423","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Leptospirosis remains a significant occupational zoonosis in New Zealand, and emerging serovar shifts warrant a closer examination of climate-related transmission pathways. This study aimed to examine whether total monthly rainfall is associated with reported leptospirosis in humans in New Zealand. Poisson and negative binomial models were developed to examine the relationship between rainfall at 0-, 1-, 2-, and 3-month lags and the incidence of leptospirosis during the month of the report. Total monthly rainfall was positively associated with the occurrence of human leptospirosis in the following month by a factor of 1.017 (95% CI: 1.007-1.026), 1.023 at the 2-month lag (95% CI:1.013-1.032), and 1.018 at the 3-month lag (95% CI: 1.009-1.028) for every additional cm of rainfall. Variation was present in the magnitude of association for each of the individual serovars considered, suggesting different exposure pathways. Assuming that the observed associations are causal, this study supports that additional human cases are likely to occur associated with increased levels of rainfall. This provides the first evidence for including rainfall in a leptospirosis early warning system and to design targeted communication and prevention measures and provide resource allocation, particularly after heavy rainfall in New Zealand.

降雨与新西兰奥特罗阿地区人类钩端螺旋体病之间的关系。
在新西兰,钩端螺旋体病仍然是一种重要的职业性人畜共患病,新出现的血清型转变需要对与气候相关的传播途径进行更密切的检查。这项研究的目的是检查每月总降雨量是否与新西兰报告的人类钩端螺旋体病有关。建立了泊松和负二项模型,以检验滞后0、1、2和3个月的降雨量与报告当月钩端螺旋体病发病率之间的关系。月总降雨量与下一个月人类钩端螺旋体病的发生呈正相关,每增加一厘米降雨量,其因子为1.017 (95% CI: 1.007-1.026),滞后2个月为1.023 (95% CI:1.013-1.032),滞后3个月为1.018 (95% CI: 1.009-1.028)。所考虑的每个个体血清型的关联程度存在差异,表明不同的暴露途径。假设观察到的关联是因果关系,本研究支持与降雨量增加有关的额外人类病例可能发生。这为将降雨纳入钩端螺旋体病早期预警系统、设计有针对性的沟通和预防措施以及提供资源分配提供了第一个证据,特别是在新西兰暴雨之后。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
2.40%
发文量
366
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信