Global adoption of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome-resistant pigs will have significant economic and market impacts.

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the global economic impacts of adopting gene-edited pigs resistant to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) on pork markets and producer profitability.

Methods: A model linking hog supply to consumer pork demand in 6 global regions, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, the US, and the rest of the world, was constructed and parametrized using pork production and trade statistics, published supply and demand elasticities, PRRS prevalence rates, and productivity metrics by PRRS health status. The model projects changes in pork prices, production, trade, and producer profits.

Results: In the baseline scenario (70% adoption over 12 years), assuming no change in pork demand or additional cost of swine genetics, the marginal cost of production declines and pork prices fall while pork production increases in adopting countries by 11% in China to 7% in the US and Canada, and pork production falls in nonadopting countries. In the 15th year after initial adoption, profits for pork producers increase, ranging from $33/head in China to $15/head in Canada relative to preadoption baseline. Producers in the rest of the world, who are assumed not to adopt, are less profitable.

Conclusions: The adoption of PRRS-resistant pigs is likely to significantly increase productivity, which translates into market impacts that are substantial and likely positive for the adopting producers, assuming there is no significant demand reduction or exorbitant increase in the cost of swine genetics.

Clinical relevance: Pork producers who adopt PRRS-resistant pigs experience higher productivity and lower veterinary costs.