Unlocking the Circular Economy Potential in China’s Hydrogen Industry: A Dynamic Stock Model Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the future metal demand patterns in China’s hydrogen industry, focusing on the transition from gray to green hydrogen production and how circular economy strategies mitigate the associated resource risks. Using a dynamic stock model, we measure the cumulative demands (2023–2060) for 17 metals across the entire hydrogen industrial chain under five scenarios. Results show that although the shift to green hydrogen reduces the demands for cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), and magnesium (Mg), it significantly increases the demands for lanthanum (La), lithium (Li), platinum group metals (PGMs), and titanium (Ti). In the baseline scenario, 87.4% of metals are sourced from primary resources, but the application of the circular economy could reduce such demands by 20–77%. Notably, even with aggressive recycling, there will be potential PGM supply shortages, indicating that it is urgent to obtain such supply through international cooperation. These results offer valuable policy insights to those decision makers so that they can prepare appropriate policies to integrate material circularity into a low-carbon energy transition.