{"title":"On testing the tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis as the change of thermal tolerance across two environments","authors":"Mauro Santos , José F. Fontanari","doi":"10.1016/j.jtherbio.2025.104248","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The world is warming rapidly, threatening the extinction of much of the world's biota. Thermal tolerance plasticity has been touted as an important buffer against global warming. The temperature tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis (TOH) posits that ectotherms who have adapted to high temperatures have done so at the expense of having limited plasticity to further improve their heat tolerance. Empirical evidence is mixed and inconsistencies may arise due to statistical artefacts caused by spurious correlations. This lack of consensus is problematic because an accurate evaluation of the TOH is crucial for estimating the buffering capacity of thermal plasticity in ectotherms that already live close to their upper physiological thermal limits. In this study, we demonstrate that the manner in which the statistical bias has been addressed when evaluating the TOH, as measured at the intraspecific level by the change in thermal tolerance across two environments, is erroneous. This is because there has never been a statistically robust prediction for either a trade-off or a lack of trade-off in two-environment experiments, which is surprising given the importance of such predictions in this field. Here, we derive a statistical framework to correctly test the hypothesis that the observed change in thermal tolerance is consistent with TOH predictions. To demonstrate how our approach can alter the conclusions and interpretations of the TOH, we apply it to two existing datasets. We show that the TOH may indeed be valid, despite previous claims to the contrary, highlighting the critical importance of a sound statistical approach to avoid spurious conclusions that can have significant implications for our understanding of climate change responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17428,"journal":{"name":"Journal of thermal biology","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 104248"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of thermal biology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306456525002050","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The world is warming rapidly, threatening the extinction of much of the world's biota. Thermal tolerance plasticity has been touted as an important buffer against global warming. The temperature tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis (TOH) posits that ectotherms who have adapted to high temperatures have done so at the expense of having limited plasticity to further improve their heat tolerance. Empirical evidence is mixed and inconsistencies may arise due to statistical artefacts caused by spurious correlations. This lack of consensus is problematic because an accurate evaluation of the TOH is crucial for estimating the buffering capacity of thermal plasticity in ectotherms that already live close to their upper physiological thermal limits. In this study, we demonstrate that the manner in which the statistical bias has been addressed when evaluating the TOH, as measured at the intraspecific level by the change in thermal tolerance across two environments, is erroneous. This is because there has never been a statistically robust prediction for either a trade-off or a lack of trade-off in two-environment experiments, which is surprising given the importance of such predictions in this field. Here, we derive a statistical framework to correctly test the hypothesis that the observed change in thermal tolerance is consistent with TOH predictions. To demonstrate how our approach can alter the conclusions and interpretations of the TOH, we apply it to two existing datasets. We show that the TOH may indeed be valid, despite previous claims to the contrary, highlighting the critical importance of a sound statistical approach to avoid spurious conclusions that can have significant implications for our understanding of climate change responses.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Thermal Biology publishes articles that advance our knowledge on the ways and mechanisms through which temperature affects man and animals. This includes studies of their responses to these effects and on the ecological consequences. Directly relevant to this theme are:
• The mechanisms of thermal limitation, heat and cold injury, and the resistance of organisms to extremes of temperature
• The mechanisms involved in acclimation, acclimatization and evolutionary adaptation to temperature
• Mechanisms underlying the patterns of hibernation, torpor, dormancy, aestivation and diapause
• Effects of temperature on reproduction and development, growth, ageing and life-span
• Studies on modelling heat transfer between organisms and their environment
• The contributions of temperature to effects of climate change on animal species and man
• Studies of conservation biology and physiology related to temperature
• Behavioural and physiological regulation of body temperature including its pathophysiology and fever
• Medical applications of hypo- and hyperthermia
Article types:
• Original articles
• Review articles