The Impact of Post-Election Violence on the Welfare of Rural Farm Households in Kenya

Abstract

We investigate the causal impact of the Kenya 2008 post-election violence on rural farm households' welfare, including per capita income. We explore potential causal pathways through which post-election violence might have affected household welfare, including crop income, livestock income and off-farm income. We use a difference-in-differences estimator to analyse data from a 10-year panel of rural farm households from the Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development combined with conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence and Uppsala Conflict Data Program. We find that the post-election violence had a negative impact on household welfare. Specifically, exposure to post-election violence led to a 19% reduction in household per capita income. Notably, post-election violence had a negative impact on crop income and off-farm income but a positive impact on livestock income. Households may have resorted to selling their livestock as an ex ante or ex post coping strategy. Unlike crop production, some forms of livestock production such as dairy production involve daily rather than seasonal activities. Thus, it is plausible that similar forms of livestock production might have provided an economically viable ex post income generating strategy during PEV. This study offers pertinent policy implications aimed at enhancing rural development and supporting post-election violence recovery.