Exploring Accumulative Risk and Protective Factors for Young People: An Agent-Based Model

Abstract

Purpose: Agent-based modeling (ABM) is used to explore the impacts of a professional's decision-making on young people in their social lives. Methods: In this model, young people are presented with opportunities to engage in prosocial and antisocial activities. In these processes, authority figures act as a deterrent, actively reduce the risk of recidivism, or actively reduce risk and encourage prosocial development. Results: We assess the outcomes of those interventions and, through running simulations, observe the ways in which the use of authority contributes to the creation of path dependence and the locking in of recidivism. Conclusions: We conclude by discussing the findings and the ethics of punitive approaches that lock in recidivism and question why these approaches continue in light of the evidence. We then discuss the application of ABM to social work practices more broadly and the promise of participatory approaches particularly.