The sustainable future of cities under uncertainty: identifying key factors of adaptive urban resilience in Yazd, Iran

IF 5.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Ain Shams Engineering Journal Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.asej.2025.103732

Ali Naderi, Kamal Khoshnevis

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Abstract

Despite the focus of previous studies on the static aspects of urban resilience, a significant gap remains in understanding its adaptive dynamics under uncertainty. This study seeks to identify the key factors influencing Adaptive Urban Resilience (AUR) in Yazd, Iran, through a hybrid methodological framework comprising Delphi, MICMAC (Matrix of Crossed Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification), and Monte Carlo simulation. A total of 52 indicators across eight urban resilience dimensions were evaluated. The results indicate that the efficiency of climate change adaptation mechanisms (EN7) had the highest influence score (98.00), positioning it as a strategic leverage point for system-wide adaptation. Land-use change (PH4) with a score of 92.99, and geopolitical risks (P4) with 91.99, also emerged as top drivers of systemic transformation. In contrast, environmental pollution (EN1) and green space accessibility (EN2) were identified as highly unstable variables, necessitating flexible and adaptive planning. Overall, the findings underscore systemic instability driven by interlinked physical, political, and environmental factors. The proposed framework offers actionable insights for integrated and forward-looking urban resilience planning in arid, heritage-rich cities.

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不确定性下城市的可持续未来：确定伊朗亚兹德适应性城市韧性的关键因素

尽管以往的研究主要集中在城市弹性的静态方面，但在不确定性下对其适应动态的理解仍然存在重大差距。本研究旨在通过包括德尔菲、MICMAC（应用于分类的交叉影响乘法矩阵）和蒙特卡罗模拟的混合方法框架，确定影响伊朗亚兹德适应性城市弹性（AUR）的关键因素。共评估了8个城市韧性维度的52个指标。结果表明，气候变化适应机制效率（EN7）的影响得分最高（98.00），是全系统适应的战略杠杆点。土地利用变化（PH4）得分为92.99，地缘政治风险（P4）得分为91.99，也成为系统性转型的主要驱动因素。相反，环境污染（EN1）和绿地可达性（EN2）被认为是高度不稳定的变量，需要灵活和适应性的规划。总体而言，研究结果强调了由相互关联的物理、政治和环境因素驱动的系统性不稳定性。提出的框架为干旱、遗产丰富的城市的综合和前瞻性城市韧性规划提供了可行的见解。

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来源期刊

Ain Shams Engineering Journal Engineering-General Engineering

CiteScore

10.80

自引率

13.30%

发文量

441

审稿时长

49 weeks

期刊介绍： in Shams Engineering Journal is an international journal devoted to publication of peer reviewed original high-quality research papers and review papers in both traditional topics and those of emerging science and technology. Areas of both theoretical and fundamental interest as well as those concerning industrial applications, emerging instrumental techniques and those which have some practical application to an aspect of human endeavor, such as the preservation of the environment, health, waste disposal are welcome. The overall focus is on original and rigorous scientific research results which have generic significance. Ain Shams Engineering Journal focuses upon aspects of mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, civil engineering, chemical engineering, petroleum engineering, environmental engineering, architectural and urban planning engineering. Papers in which knowledge from other disciplines is integrated with engineering are especially welcome like nanotechnology, material sciences, and computational methods as well as applied basic sciences: engineering mathematics, physics and chemistry.